A Prediction Engine for builders and operators.

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Research-Driven Forecasts, Built for Decision Makers

We scour public sources, filings, and macro datasets, then run rigorous quantitative models to produce forward-looking scenarios you can defend.

Research run complete. Rate decision outlook:

  1. 87% probability: Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points
  2. Key drivers: Inflation persistence, labor market strength
  3. Confidence: High based on policy guidance and macro series
Will the Fed raise rates in January 2026?87%
OUTCOMEInflation above target: Rate hike likely
RISKGrowth slowdown: Could delay decision
SIGNALPolicy statements: Hawkish stance maintained

Multi-source research intake.

We collect market data, macro series, filings, transcripts, and web research into a structured, report-ready dataset.

Data plan
Coming soon
Macro series (monthly)Web research (weekly)
Run cadence

Quant models with guardrails.

Apply DSGE, VAR, and risk models with explicit assumptions and diagnostics that surface model limitations.

MODEL REGISTRY
DSGE macroscenarios
VAR time seriesforecasts
Systemic riskstress

Scenario synthesis you can audit.

Combine deep research with quantitative outputs to produce base, stress, and tail scenarios with clear provenance.

SCENARIO PACK
Tail risk identified
Credit spreads widen as growth decelerates below trend.
Drivers: policy path, inflation prints, labor cooling
Macro + market coverage

series, filings, and web research

Scenario-based outlooks

with explicit assumptions and risks

See the Full Pipeline in Action

From hypothesis to scenario analysis, watch how a single question transforms into a comprehensive, citation-backed forecast.

REFINED HYPOTHESIS

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by Q4 2026, assuming current institutional adoption trends continue?

RESEARCH AREAS (parallel)
Institutional Flows

ETF inflows, corporate treasury allocations, fund positioning

On-Chain Metrics

HODL waves, exchange reserves, whale accumulation

Macro Environment

Real rates, liquidity conditions, regulatory outlook

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
MONTE CARLOPrice path simulation (10,000 runs)
FRED + Market Data
CYCLE ANALYSISHalving cycle comparison
Historical OHLC
SCENARIO SYNTHESIS68% confidence
OPTIMISTIC (25%)
$185,000

ETF flows accelerate, favorable regulation

BASE CASE (50%)
$142,000

Current trends continue, moderate growth

PESSIMISTIC (25%)
$78,000

Macro headwinds, regulatory friction

12 sources citedTaylor Rule, Sahm Rule appliedFull report available